Brazil’s cattle industry may be nearing the end of a prolonged herd-liquidation phase as tighter supplies push prices higher and curb slaughter activity.
Cattle prices have risen nearly 9% over the past 30 days, reaching 348 reais per arroba on Friday — the highest level since November 2024 — according to data from Cepea. The advance comes amid firm beef demand and early indications that ranchers are scaling back sales of breeding females, a key signal of a cyclical shift in cattle herds.
Slaughter at federally inspected plants totaled 2.3 million head in January, down 4.6% from a year earlier and 5% from December 2025, according to consultancy Agrifatto.
“This may be the first sign that the current stage of the cattle cycle, marked by low prices, is starting to shift,” said Lygia Pimentel, chief executive officer of Agrifatto. Slaughter schedules have shortened to four to five days from about 10 previously, she said, citing tighter cattle availability and a slowdown in female culling.
While female slaughter rose 11.2% from December, it fell 12.7% from a year earlier — a notable reversal after four consecutive years of heavy liquidation. Volumes remain above the five-year average for January, but the pace of female slaughter has eased.
“It seems that we may finally begin to see female retention after four years of liquidation,” said César de Castro Alves, head of agribusiness consulting at Itaú BBA.
Expensive Calves
Higher calf prices are reinforcing the shift in rancher behavior. Prices for young cattle have climbed more than 50% from their July 2024 low, according to Cepea.
In São Paulo state, the premium of calves over finished cattle is about 27%, well above the historical average of 14% since 2001, consultancy Athenagro estimates. Over the past six months, the premium has averaged 23%.
“Calf prices have been rising faster than finished cattle since mid-2024,” said Maurício de Palma Nogueira, Athenagro’s founder. Stronger margins for calf producers are encouraging ranchers to retain breeding females rather than send them to slaughter.
The cattle cycle has broad implications across the supply chain. Periods of herd retention typically support higher cattle prices and stronger rancher margins, while squeezing profitability for meatpackers facing more expensive livestock.
